Predictions for the 2022 Oscars
The Academy Awards bring another COVID-impacted awards season to an end this weekend. In anticipation, we have re-run our predictions model once again to see how this year’s nominees are stacking up.
Trying to predict film awards is a tricky task, and many different factors – not least a film’s quality! – end up affecting voting behaviour. We use a points-based system which tracks the performance of each nominee across the awards season to assess their chances at the Oscars.
In our model, each award is allocated points based on how closely their winners have correlated with the Oscars over the past twenty years; a nomination is worth a fifth of the points for a win. Assuming that the voting bodies of each award, and their voting tendencies, remain broadly consistent, then past agreement with the Oscars should be a good indicator of the nominees’ chances of winning this weekend.
The charts set out below show our model’s cumulative points total for each nominee as this year’s awards have been allocated. We’ve also compared the current nominees’ results to those of the past eight winners to gauge where they need to be at this stage to realistically put themselves in contention.
Last year, our model correctly predicted eight out of nine categories. However, with commercial and political forces continuing to accelerate change across the awards season, most notably in this year’s stripped back Golden Globes following concerns over the diversity of its membership, it remains to be seen whether the usual voting tendencies and dynamics will begin to drift apart. How the predictions of our model perform against the results this weekend may shed some light on the picture…
1. Best Picture
The Best Picture race this year has been dominated by Netflix’s The Power of the Dog, having jumped ahead of the pack two weeks ago following major wins at the Directors Guild, Critics’ Choice and BAFTA awards (the latter two unusually taking place on the same day as the Critics’ Choice ceremony was delayed due to COVID restrictions). CODA, acquired by Apple TV+ from Sundance, has picked up momentum winning the Writers, Screen Actors, and Producers Guild awards. While it lags behind the frontrunner in our model, it falls within the range of the past eight winners in our model and its success at guild awards may boost its chance at the Oscars where the voting body is similarly composed of filmmakers. None of the other nominees have made much of an impact across the awards season – all having fewer points totals than recent winners – so it seems likely that the Academy will award Best Picture to a film from a streaming service for the first time this weekend, with The Power of the Dog ahead due to its number of major wins late in the season.
Prediction: The Power of the Dog
2. Best Director
Best Director once again has a runaway favourite – this time Jane Campion for her sun-parched, slow-burn western The Power of the Dog. Our model predicts that Jane Campion is an even stronger frontrunner than last year’s winner Chloé Zhao having swept all the major awards, leaving little room for other nominees to gain traction. A win for Jane Campion would only be the third time a woman has won Best Director at the Oscars, and the second time in two years, highlighting the growing range of female voices in the industry and a potential shift in the Oscars’ voter base.
Prediction: Jane Campion
3. Best Actor & Actress
Best Actor appeared to be a neck-and-neck race between Benedict Cumberbatch and Will Smith, however the latter has pulled ahead following a number of major wins. Will Smith may also have history on his side as a nominee’s body of work and previous near misses often seem to have an impact on acting awards – having previously been nominated twice but not winning, voters may see this as time to reward the US screen icon for his familiarly charismatic role in King Richard.
In contrast, no clear standout has emerged for Best Actress in what has been a strange year for the award. The BAFTAs – usually a close comparator to the Oscars, picking 16 of the same winners in the last 20 years – selected an entirely different set of nominees, and the winner Joanna Scanlan had not featured elsewhere. None of this year’s nominees have reached the points total of past winners.
Jessica Chastain is the frontrunner with momentum after victory at the SAG awards, but don’t discount other nominees. Nicole Kidman and Olivia Colman are closest in our model but both have previously won, unlike Chastain, which will affect their odds. Kristen Stewart, an early favourite for her role as Princess Diana, probably has the best shot at an upset with her SAG nominations snub maybe driving an underdog narrative.
Prediction: Jessica Chastain
Prediction: Will Smith
4. Best Supporting Actor & Actress
Prediction: Troy Kotsur
Supporting Actor this year is increidbly tight between Troy Kotsur for CODA and Kodi Smit-McPhee for The Power of the Dog. However the former has both the late momentum – winning at the SAG, BAFTA and Critics’ Choice awards – and personal success story – having previously struggled to find singificant film and TV work as a deaf actor – working in his favour.
Meanwhile, Supporting Actress has a clear favourite in Ariana DeBose, for her role in West Side Story, who has swept the major awards. It’s difficult to see any other outcome here, especially due to the Academy’s past preference for musical showpieces, though given Judi Dench’s unexpected nomination, after not being considered at any other big awards, a shock decision is not out of the question.
Prediction: Ariana DeBose
5. Best Documentary
Summer of Soul (...Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised) is far out in the lead for Best Documentary after emerging victorious at most critic and guild awards. The music documentary captures the events of the 1969 Harlem Cultural Festival, like a pristine time capsule of the period, and is deserving of its success so far (if you haven’t seen it, it’s on Disney+ and I would highly recommend it!). Flee – which documents the story of a gay Afghan refugee fleeing the country – is the closest competitor and holds the distinction of being the first film ever nominated for all three of best documentary, best animated, and best international film awards. Nevertheless, Summer of Soul seems to be the nailed-on winner, notwithstanding another unexpected winner in the category such as Icarus in 2018.
Prediction: Summer of Soul
6. Best Animated Feature Film
The Animated film category, which often has a clear frontrunner, is an unusually a close race this year. Sony’s The Mitchells vs the Machines, sold to and distributed by Netflix due to the impact of COVID on cinemas, won at the influential Annie awards but its chances remain slightly behind Disney’s Encanto according to our model. Encanto’s awards bid will also be strengthened by its diverse setting and audience, recent resonance in pop culture, and musical numbers which often go down well with Academy voters (although strangely Disney did not put forward the film’s most popular track ‘We Don’t Talk About Bruno’ for Best Original Song, choosing another instead).
Prediction: Encanto
7. Best International Feature Film
In a category that often has less correlation between awards – making our model less reliable – there is a clear favourite in the Japanese film Drive My Car, a long, thoughtful drama touching on themes of grief and communication. The film’s stature has grown across the awards season since its release, winning at the Globes, BAFTAs, and Critics’ Choice awards, and is the only foreign-language film to also be nominated for overall Best Picture placing it clearly ahead of the pack. The one usually good indicator for the Oscars where Drive My Car did not come out on top – the National Board of Review – went instead to Ashgar Farhadi’s A Hero which was not nominated by the Academy. While the other Oscar nominees have been present throughout the season, particularly The Worst Person in the World and The Hand of God, anything other than a win for Drive My Car would be a big surprise.
Prediction: Another Round
