Predictions for the 2021 Oscars
Despite being delayed due to the pandemic, the Academy Awards are finally scheduled to occur this weekend to deliver the award season’s crowning verdict on this year’s contenders. In anticipation of the awards, we have re-run our predictions model to measure how this year’s nominees fare and predict the outcome of the 2021 Oscars.
Trying to predict film awards is a tricky task – there are many possible approaches, but none are guaranteed to replicate the outcome of the closed member ballots which decide each award. We use a points-based system which tracks the performance of each nominee across the awards season to assess their chances at the Oscars.
In our model, each award is allocated points based on how closely their winners have correlated with the Oscars over the past twenty years; a nomination is worth a fifth of the points for a win. Assuming that the voting bodies of each award, and their voting tendencies, remain broadly consistent, then past agreement with the Oscars should be a good indicator of the nominees’ chances of winning this weekend.
The charts set out over the following pages show our model’s cumulative points total for each nominee as this year’s awards have been allocated. We’ve also compared the current nominees’ results to those of the past eight winners to gauge where they need to be at this stage to realistically put themselves in contention.
This year’s awards season has been unusual given the significant disruption to the film industry over the past 12 months, which, in combination with a major revamp to the voting process for the BAFTAs, create unique challenges for our predictions.
Last year, our model correctly predicted seven out of nine categories – so, let’s see how we do this year…
1. Best Picture
Best Picture has been dominated by the intimate Nomadland since the start of the season. Major wins in the Critics’ Choice, Writers Guild and BAFTAs place Nomadland as the only title to reach a higher score, at this stage, than last year’s winner, Parasite. With a win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, The Trial of the Chicago 7 surpassed Promising Young Woman as an, albeit low ranking, second in the running. A roster of close scoring but unique titles make up the remaining contenders, who, despite their merits, face an uphill battle given the enduring success Nomadland garnered over the uniquely elongated award season. These films are: Minari – a portrayal of a Korean family moving to a 1980s Arkansas, Mank – David Fincher’s biopic of Herman J. Mankiewicz, and Sound of Metal – the depiction of a young, troubled, and aspiring musician losing his hearing.
Prediction: Nomadland
2. Best Director
Similar to Best Picture, the contest here is led by Chloé Zhao – director of Nomadland – with a predicted score higher than any of the previous eight winners, including Roma’s AlfonsoCuaron. Zhao’s pictorial direction and blend of actors with real life van dwellers secured a score over seven times higher than next in line, Emerald Fennel (Promising Young Woman). If there were runner up awards, David Fincher (Mank) and Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) trail Fennel narrowly, respectively. A single win in the European Film Award places Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) at the bottom of our predictions.
Prediction: Chloé Zhao
3. Best Actor & Actress
Prediction: Chadwick Boseman
In Best Actor, a win for the late Chadwick Boseman seems to be the most likely outcome, for his last recorded performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom. Although rare, posthumous Oscar winners in this category have happened, the last being Peter Finch in 1976 for Network. Despite this award being a fitting way to honour Chadwick Boseman’s legacy, Anthony Hopkins (The Father) and Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) both turned heads in their respective roles. In Best Actress, no nominees’ predicted score matched that of Renée Zellweger’s from last year, for her performance in Judy. However, a much tighter race is apparent this year.
Prediction: Frances McDormand
A recent BAFTAs win pushed Frances McDormand (Nomadland) into the lead, overtaking Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) – who, days before, picked up the Screen Actors Guild (usually a strong indicator for the Oscars). Andra Day’s (United States vs Billie Holiday) surprise win at the Golden Globes narrowed the competition, closing in the gap on Carey Mulligan – who’s powerful performance in Promising Young Woman strikes a chord with important social issues.
4. Best Supporting Actor & Actress
In both Best Supporting categories, no nominee has reached last year’s winner’s points total at this stage. However, Daniel Kaluuya’s performance as Fred Hampton in Judas and the Black Messiah picked up wins in the Globes and Screen Actors Guild, giving the British actor a comfortable lead in this category. Surprisingly from the same film, Laketih Stanfield appears as a nomination despite being touted as a Best Actor contender. A safe second bet would be Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), given his awards picked up in the Chicago and Boston Film Critics, as well as several other nominations. Meanwhile, a two-horse race is apparent between the experienced vetertan Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) and relative newcomer Mario Bakalova (Borat 2) with wins in the Screen Actors Guild and BAFTAs giving the former a slight lead over the latter.
Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya
Prediction: Yuh-Jung Youn
5. Best Documentary
Best Documentary is close call and filled with films that provide an insight to social and political themes. In the lead is the moving nature documentary My Octopus Teacher; a recent win at the Eddies drives this lead. In a close second, Time provides an urgent and hard-hitting exploration of the personal impact of mass incarceration on Black communities in the US. This title is propelled by the earlier success in the National Board of Review awards. Lower down our projections ranking, but by no means lacking in quality, foreign-documentary Collective offers a more traditional investigation to the lack of adequate healthcare in Romania following a traumatic nightclub fire in 2015. Whilst Crip Camp follows the disability rights movement in the mid to late 20th century.
Prediction: My Octopus Teacher
6. Best Animated Feature Film
As usual for animated film, a one-sided affair sees Disney-Pixar’s Soul as the clear and only frontrunner. Winning seven of the last eight awards, Disney also has a second nomination with Onward. The interest of streaming giants in this space is apparent with Apple’s Wolfwalkers and Netflix’s Over the Moon. Additionally, stop-motion specialists Aardman, feature low down the list with A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon.
Prediction: Soul
7. Best International Feature Film
With its high critical acclaim, Parasite has left an incredibly high bar for other foreign films to reach. None of this year’s contenders have reached that score after a few heavy hitters missed out on nominations, perhaps due to the expanded voting pool for the award this year. Minari’s success in this category across other awards would place it as the favourite, however it is not eligible for international feature at the Oscars – explaining some of the large gap between last year’s winner and this year’s contenders. Another high scoring film left off the nomination list is Shudder’s La Llorona – a gripping Guatemalan political horror – which would score highest (excluding Minari) after its wins in the National Board of Review awards, Boston Film Critics and Satellite Awards. Despite these oddities, the entertaining Another Round leads the charge, driven by its recent win in the BAFTAs. However, with two films – Better Days and The Man Who Sold His Skin – not picking up any points across the season, this category will be tough one to predict accurately.
Prediction: Another Round
