Oscars 2024 Predictions
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While the Oscars are anticipated to dominate headlines on Monday morning, the most significant news in the UK film industry this week is the unveiling of a substantial increase in the tax credit for independent UK films. In Wednesday’s budget, it was announced that the Film Tax Credit will be elevated to 40% for films with budgets up to £15 million.
O&O is proud to have played a pivotal role in collaborating with PACT to secure this significant support, and we believe that this relief will help rejuvenate the UK's domestic film industry and nurture local talent. With Christopher Nolan and Jonathan Glazer among this year's best directing nominees, each having started their careers within the independent film sector, who knows how many future Oscar winners will benefit from this tax cut.
O&O’s 2024 Oscars Predictions
Everything Everywhere All at Once won big last year and caused upsets in a few major categories. This year, Oppenheimer is the clear favourite to take home the big awards on the night; however, it remains to be seen if its success so far will result in wins on Sunday night.
1. Best Picture
Amongst a particularly strong cohort of nominees this year, Oppenheimer has been the undeniable frontrunner for this year's Best Picture, clinching top honours at all major awards. Oppenheimer is in many respects a traditional Best Picture candidate, straddling two genres that typically do well at awards: biopics and war films. Though it does in many ways subvert those, Oppenheimer is certainly a more conventional choice compared to last year's genre-defying, female-led Everything Everywhere All at Once. Oppenheimer has all this going for it alongside a colossal £752 million box office haul and mainstream popularity, which the Academy will be hoping to tap into. The biggest result of the night could be the audience ratings - if ‘Barbenheimer’ can’t bring them closer to pre-pandemic levels, what can?
Prediction: Oppenheimer (Winner: Oppenheimer)
2. Best Director
Best Director tells a similar story, with Christopher Nolan well ahead of the pack. If there was to be an upset on the night, it would likely be from English director Jonathan Glazer, whose work on The Zone of Interest pushes the boundaries in use of image and sound. While the winner may be straightforward, the nominations presented a surprise in the omission of Greta Gerwig. Anatomy of a Fall’s Justine Triet was favoured instead, despite Gerwig securing more noms elsewhere and being seen as a lock by many – her snub caused thousands to chime in on social media including Hillary Clinton (perhaps the Oscars are still relevant after all!). The Academy's nominations of Triet, Glazer and Lanthimos, speaks to a changing voter base, one that is increasingly international and inclined to recognise non-American directors.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan (Winner: Christopher Nolan)
3. Best Actor & Actress
Cillian Murphy is the frontrunner for Best Actor for his work in Oppenheimer. Murphy, while well known for his role on Peaky Blinders and supporting roles in other Nolan films, was not a Hollywood mainstay until this year and has seen his campaign helped by the reverence shown to him from his co-stars Robert Downey Jr. and Emily Blunt. Paul Giamatti also remains a strong contender for his performance in The Holdovers – although many of his wins have come from comedy specific awards, his win over Cillian Murphy at the Critics’ Choice awards has kept him in the race.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy (Winner: Cillian Murphy)
Best Actress is the one truly competitive battle here, with Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone in a tight race. Gladstone is slightly favoured, based on awards success so far, for her nuanced and powerful performance in Killers of the Flower Moon, despite missing out on a BAFTA nomination. Meanwhile, Emma Stone's role in Poor Things has impressed with its boldness and big physicality, a facet that voters usually reward. However, many of the other intangibles lean towards Gladstone – this would be her first Oscar (in contrast to Emma Stone’s second), it is likely the only major award that Scorsese’s latest masterpiece could win, and taps into Native American stories that have been underrepresented in film and may connect well with American voters.
Prediction: Lily Gladstone (Winner: Emma Stone)
4. Best Supporting Actor & Actress
For Best Supporting Actor, Robert Downey Jr. has emerged as the clear favourite in the race for his role in Oppenheimer. Downey Jr. has run a strong campaign that plays of his popularity within Hollywood. While the competition seemed tight earlier on, Gosling is now a distant second, but his exceptional ‘Kenergy’ could still garner him a win for Best Original Song. Charles Melton also briefly appeared as a contender with his breakthrough performance in May December, which saw him hold his own alongside Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman, yet surprisingly he did not secure a nomination.
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr. (Winner: Robert Downey Jr.)
The safest bet of the night is Da'Vine Joy Randolph to win Best Supporting Actress, she has won every award tracked in our model for her remarkable performance as a grieving mother in The Holdovers. Any other result would be very unexpected given the nominations notably omitted three of the best performances from the year, as Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret), Julianne Moore (May December), and Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) all failed to get nominations.
Prediction: Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Winner: Da'Vine Joy Randolph)
Predicting film awards is a tricky task, and many different factors (not least the campaigns that the studios run on the films’ behalf) end up affecting voting behaviour. We use a points-based system which tracks each nominee across the awards season, using their performance at other awards to assess their chances at the Oscars - for more detail on our methodology, check out last year’s predictions, or email Jessica.norton@oando.co.uk or marcus.kyte@oando.co.uk for more information.