Big change, no change and an old friend returns: Sean McGuire looks at the next batch of sports rights deals

Following our astonishingly accurate prediction for the outcome of the Premier League rights auction, we thought we’d look a bit further ahead, to what might happen in 2024.

The big, industry-defining event will be the NBA’s domestic rights; a great product for broadcasters, with household names, lots of action, and a young, advertiser-friendly audience.  Some analysts are predicting a three-fold increase in value.  It will also be the first test of the ESPN-Fox-WBD sports joint venture; securing the NBA will be a key part of their portfolio going forward.

However, we would inject a note of caution – committing to a decade-long deal, with regular escalators in fees, is exactly what blew up the regional sports networks.  In today’s climate, any model that depends on a combination of broadcast advertising and cable revenues over the next ten years is risky, to say the least.  But on the other hand, the new sports joint venture in the US (the Fox-ESPN-WBD tie up) will need the NBA to make it work.

Closer to home, we’re coming to the end of a European rights mega-cycle, with all of the big 5 soccer leagues and UEFA renewing their deals – the Bundesliga will be the last to market, hopefully concluding this spring.  Don’t expect Sky to pass on this one, and while it is unlikely to go down, the famous German consumers’ (un)willingness to pay means it won’t go up very much either.  And we may even see France’s Ligue 1 conclude a process that started all the way back in September 2023 – but again, likely to be pretty much flat.

We’ll also see the launch of the “Swiss model” Champions League format – a single league of 36 clubs, where each team plays eight matches i.e. not playing every other team, and not home and away.  Expect three things:  firstly a lot of confusion in September, then by Christmas, when the table starts to take shape, a lot of moaning about the unfairness of the draw; replaced in April by excitement for the semis and final.  Despite everything, sport will always find a way.

Beyond football, the focus will be on investment into sport (primarily from the Middle East) and changing formats and competition structures.  The soap opera in golf will start to resolve itself, with a move towards a world tour – simple, streamlined and exciting.  But as we have said before, any moves in golf, tennis or cycling need to recognise the power of the biggest events – the majors, grand slams and grand tours - that all sit outside the control of the governing bodies, but which define their sports for many fans.

Finally - a European Super League will no doubt creak back into life, like the monster that can never die.  But the English clubs will realise that they have more to lose than gain, and it will get even less traction than last time.

Oh and it’s an Olympic year, which means that for a fortnight this summer all your friends will be self-appointed experts in dressage. It’s going to be quite a year.

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