Predictions for the 2020 Oscars
Oscars 2020 Predictions
The Academy Awards are upon us once again, delivering the award season’s final verdict on last year’s films. Before the ceremony this weekend, we’ve fired up our predictions model once again to see how the nominees are currently faring.
Last year the model picked six out of eight categories correctly – can we do better this year?
Trying to predict film awards is a tricky task – there are many approaches, but none are sure to replicate the outcome of the closed member ballots. We use a points-based system, tracking the performance of each nominee across the awards season to assess their chances at the Oscars.
In our model, each award is allocated points based on how closely their winners have correlated with the Oscars over the past twenty years; a nomination is worth a fifth of the points for a win. Assuming that the voting bodies of each award, and their voting tendencies, remain broadly consistent, then past agreement with the Oscars should be a good indicator of the nominees’ chances of winning this weekend.
The charts set out over the following pages show our model’s cumulative points total for each nominee as this year’s awards have been allocated. We’ve also compared the current nominees’ results to those of the past eight winners to gauge where they need to be at this stage to realistically put themselves in contention.
This year’s awards should be an intriguing one. Though, in a rarity for the Oscars, all the acting awards seem to be more-or-less wrapped up, there’s still a close race in many of the other big categories.
1. Best Picture
Best Picture seems to be a two-horse race between the World War I thriller 1917 and razor-sharp, South Korean dramedy Parasite. 1917 currently sits on top as the favourite and comes into the Oscars with the momentum following its major wins at the Directors Guild and BAFTA awards, plus a strong box office performance. Despite significant successes elsewhere, Parasite probably faces a tough challenge overcoming the fact that no foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture (even the highly favoured Roma last year). From the remaining contenders, only Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has a points total similar to outlying previous winners. The film has an outside chance having picked up the Critics’ Choice award (usually a good indicator for the Oscars) earlier in the awards season though has failed to move the needle since.
Prediction: 1917
2. Best Director
Similar to Best Picture, the contest here appears to be between Sam Mendes for 1917 and Bong Joon Ho for Parasite, with the former slightly ahead after wins at the Directors Guild (a very strong indicator) and BAFTA awards. A victory for Bong Joon Ho would make him the second director to ever win for a foreign-language film following directly after Alfonso Cuarón last year. On the other hand, this could be Sam Mendes’ second win – after triumphing in 2000 with his debut film American Beauty – from only his second nomination despite a strong body of work. Given that neither film is a runaway favourite here or for Best Picture, voters may be inclined to split these votes between them.
Prediction: Sam Mendes
3. Best Actor & Actress
There are two clear favourites in the main acting awards. In Best Actor, a win for Joaquin Phoenix seems to be the most likely notable victory for Joker at the Oscars, the type of popular, mainstream film that the Academy would like to represent more. Meanwhile, Renée Zellweger’s work in Judy, a role tailor-made for awards success (aside from the singing and depiction of a past star, it also focuses on the difficulties of being in showbiz – a favourite topic of the Academy), has understandably won a lot of recognition. Any chance of an upset probably lies with the leads of Marriage Story, Adam Driver and Scarlett Johansson, but compared to past winners their performance has been far below what is needed at this stage. The fact that the film is a Netflix release may not help their cause with some voters either.
Prediction: Joaquin Phoenix
Prediction: Renée Zellweger
4. Best Supporting Actor & Actress
Prediction: Brad Pitt
The supporting actor and actress awards similarly have runaway favourites. Brad Pitt and Laura Dern seem almost certain to come away with the statuettes for their performances in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Marriage Story respectively. Both have also never won acting awards at the Oscars despite their illustrious careers so would be warmly welcomed victors. Joe Pesci, touted as an early frontrunner for his brilliantly understated role in The Irishman, has the most likely outside shot but his campaign has seemingly run out of momentum towards the end of the season (dare I say much like the three hours plus film itself!).
Prediction: Laura Dern
5. Best Documentary
Best Documentary remains an unpredictable category, especially given the omission of Apollo 11 which has picked up many of the significant awards elsewhere. American Factory and For Sama appear to be level-pegging out front, though the former may stand a better chance here given its American subject matter and Obama-backed production, just as the British involvement in For Sama perhaps contributed to its BAFTA success. Honeyland should also not be ignored, it secured a Best International Film nomination (despite not featuring there at other awards) showing that the film has fans across different branches of the Academy – whether this extends to the wider voting base remains to be seen.
Prediction: American Factory
6. Best Animated Feature Film
The contest for Best Animated Feature, usually a one-sided affair, is particularly interesting this year. Toy Story 4 is the favourite and only nominee to match the performance of most past winners. However, it has missed out at some key events. Missing Link was a surprise winner at the Golden Globes, but Klaus might be the one to keep an eye on – having barely figured for most of the season, it has recently come from nowhere to win two significant awards, the Annies and BAFTAs. Those awards are potentially more likely to celebrate Klaus’ unique aesthetic and technical achievement than the Oscars, but Klaus remains the most likely to create an upset.
Prediction: Toy Story 4
7. Best International Feature Film
Parasite is the clear favourite for Best International Feature Film, as expected given its presence in the Best Picture category across the awards season. This category has been more difficult to forecast than others in the past because there is generally less correlation between the awards – however, fewer unexpected winners are being thrown up by the major awards in recent years. Any chance for Pain and Glory, or others, to trump Parasite probably relies on members deciding to spread their votes to other films if they vote for Parasite for Best Picture.
Prediction: Parasite
